Today, in a different kind of war, Russia is again turning to its old ally, harsh weather – but this time to help in its offensive against Ukraine.
Ukraine’s extensive use of small, low-cost drones has transformed attack and defence strategies across the front lines. The Modern War Institute reports that drones are responsible for around , although it is unclear which kind of drones are killing in greater numbers: loitering one-way attack drones (known as ) or quadcopter first-person view (FPV) drones, armed with small explosives.
Beyond direct strikes, small drones play a vital role in intelligence gathering, surveillance and reconnaissance. They allow Ukrainian units to identify targets and coordinate ground operations with far greater precision. Real-time aerial imagery enables artillery crews to rapidly adjust fire, – and more lethal.
Drones have become the eyes and, increasingly, the hands of Ukraine’s ground forces, against the larger and often better-equipped Russian ground forces. Mass Ukrainian use of has significantly improved defensive effectiveness, blunting larger Russian ground force assaults by using real-time targeting data and precise strikes.
Both sides in the war also regularly deploy , rendering radio-controlled FPV drones inoperable. Russia has, of necessity, become a global leader in this area.
The jamming disrupts the radio links and video feeds that pilots rely on for navigation and targeting. This places Ukraine’s forces, which rely heavily on drones to offset Russia’s advantages, at a considerable disadvantage.
Bad weather and drones
When bad weather combines with electronic interference, the effect is even more damaging. Snow, fog, wind and cold already limit drone endurance and visibility – sharply reducing Ukraine’s technological edge in aerial reconnaissance and precision battlefield drone strikes.
Russia, in contrast, gains relative advantage in such conditions. Its older, heavier ground-based systems – tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles – are more resilient against poor weather. The battlefield becomes a place where Russia’s attritional approach to war grinds out bloody advances.
Small quadcopter drones are light, have limited endurance and are easily influenced by weather. Take the series, used by many Ukrainian units for frontline reconnaissance. It is only effective in temperatures between –10°C and +40 °C and winds below about 12 metres per second. Strong gusts or freezing weather can quickly push this small drone off course.
More advanced Ukrainian systems, such as the winged uncrewed aerial system, can operate from –15 °C to +45 °C and withstand winds up to 20 metres per second. Yet even these are restricted to dry conditions: rain or snow can ground them.
In cold conditions, , cutting both flight time and operational range. Icing can ground large numbers of drones if it changes the characteristics of the quadcopter propellers – ice makes propeller blades thicker, heavier and less aerodynamic, reducing performance.
Winged drones can suffer from wing-tip icing, which – reducing lift, increasing drag and the danger of stalling, and degrading control. Fog and snow also reduce visibility, limiting the ability to identify or track targets.
Russian offensive
In October 2025, Russia timed several large ground assaults to . This approach exploited conditions that significantly reduced Ukraine’s ability to defend itself with drones. Fog, rain and cloud cover made small reconnaissance drones unreliable or even unflyable. Visibility dropped so low that attacks on individual soldiers become far less effective.
In theory, Ukraine’s allies can offset some of this loss through satellite intelligence. US reconnaissance satellites can still gather valuable information on cloudy days by using to detect ground movements. Yet even these advanced systems cannot see visually through thick cloud banks or heavy rainstorms.
Historically, Russia’s severe weather served a defensive purpose, turning back invading armies from Napoleon to Hitler. In the present war, however, Russia is using the same harsh climate offensively, turning natural concealment into a tactical advantage as it advances across Ukrainian ground.
Winter has not yet arrived, but Ukrainian and Russian military planners will be watching the weather. Ukraine’s vaunted ability to innovate and respond to Russian tactics will be tested even further in the months ahead.
, Professor of Applied Ethics and Director, Security and Risk Research,
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