A data-driven simulation with a strong track record in predicting major sporting event results has run a million probabilities to identify the 2026 World Cup favourites
A mathematical model used to simulate sports match outcomes has identified England as a serious contender for the FIFA World Cup.
Dr Sarthak Mondal, a Senior Lecturer in Sport Management from the 兔子先生鈥檚 School of Psychology, Sport and Health Sciences, has developed a programme that can predict outcomes in big sport matches, including the FIFA World Cup 2026 (June 11 to June 16).
The programme, based on code developed by Laurie Shaw, Lead Director of Football Data at City Football Group, does not guarantee results but assesses team strength and forecasts likely outcomes.
Dr Mondal ran a million simulations of the FIFA World Cup 2026 after the final teams were confirmed, revealing that England enters the tournament as pre-tournament favourites, with a 15.9 per cent chance of winning.
The data also indicates that, alongside England (15.9 per cent), Spain (10.1 per cent), France (10.2 per cent) and Argentina (10.9 per cent) each have over a 10 per cent chance of winning, with England鈥檚 best opportunity coming via penalties.
Image credit: Dr Sarthak Mondal
England鈥檚 likely path through the tournament includes a round of 32 match against Colombia, Uzbekistan or Ivory Coast, followed by a round of 16 clash with Mexico, Spain or the Czech Republic. The quarterfinals could see them face Brazil, the semi-finals Argentina and the final one of Spain, France or a repeat of the 1966 World Cup final against Germany.
While not predicting a win, the analysis reinforces England鈥檚 status as one of the favourites, a position they last held in the finals of the 1966 home World Cup. The last pre-tournament favourites to win the FIFA Men鈥檚 World Cup were .
Dr Mondal, from the University鈥檚 School of Psychology, Sport and Health Sciences in the Faculty of Science and Health, said: 鈥淲ith around 88 per cent accuracy, the model uses data going back to the 1930s, including games and penalty shootouts, to map team strengths and create a mathematical model.
鈥淎t a match-to-match level, like the 2020 Men鈥檚 Euros finals, the simulations adapt dynamically as knockout rounds are decided. This year, for the World Cup, the model accounts for 495 possible combinations of which third-place teams advance - a new feature that reflects the evolving nature of the tournament."
This comes after the programme accurately identified England, with a 14 per cent chance, as one of the favourites for the Women鈥檚 Euro 2025 - a tournament they ultimately won.
鈥淭he fact that it accurately identified the results of multiple football events dating back to 2021 and England as one of the favourites to win for the 2025 Women鈥檚 Euros underlines its reliability鈥, added Dr Mondal.
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